Executive Summary

Q1 2024 was operationally stronger on volumes and ASP but financially weak: Nikola wholesaled 40 FCEVs (above its Q4 guide of 30–35) with an average sales price rising to $381,000 per unit, while GAAP revenue was $7.50M as BEV dealer returns depressed the top line .
Gross margin remained deeply negative at -768% with a gross loss of $57.6M; adjusted EBITDA was -$104.0M, reflecting early-scale economics and outsized warranty accruals as management prioritizes volume to drive BOM and cost reductions .
Guidance updates: FY24 FCEV deliveries maintained at 300–350; Q2 FCEV guidance set at 50–60; BEV inventory sales pushed to 2025; FY revenue/gross margin guidance withdrawn (CapEx maintained at $60–$70M) .
Strategic and infrastructure progress: HYLA added Ontario and Long Beach fueling sites and now targets nine hydrogen fueling solutions by mid‑2024 and 14 by year‑end; voucher share in California for Class 8 FCEVs remained ~99% (362/367 unredeemed) .
Stock reaction catalysts: focus on national accounts, pricing flexibility to seed fleets, accelerating HYLA footprint, and reverse split process to preserve Nasdaq listing and access capital (governance tone likely a near-term sentiment driver) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Exceeded Q1 delivery guidance and raised ASP: 40 FCEVs wholesaled (vs. 30–35 guided) and ASP rose ~$30K sequentially to $381K; CFO emphasized traction with repeat and new fleets (e.g., IMC, AJR, GTG) .
HYLA network expansion and policy tailwinds: Modular stations opened in Ontario and near the Port of Long Beach; target increased to 14 solutions by year‑end; dominant HVIP voucher share (~99%) supports demand .
BEV remediation progress and platform convergence: first remediated BEV delivered; BEV 2.0 shares software commonality with FCEV enabling OTA upgrades and ADAS enhancements .

What Went Wrong

Financials remain very weak at early scale: Q1 gross margin -768%, gross loss $57.6M, net loss -$147.7M, adjusted EBITDA -$104.0M; CFO highlighted outsized warranty accruals and need for volume before cost optimization .
Top-line muddied by BEV returns: While FCEV revenue was ~$15M above guidance, GAAP revenue printed $7.5M due to repurchases/reserves related to BEV dealer network pruning .
Battery supply constraints and guidance pullback: BEV on-hand inventory sales shifted to 2025; management intentionally silent on full-year revenue/margin guidance due to moving parts (supplier ramp, vouchers, warranty, mix) .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L (USD)

Metric	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024
Total Revenues ($MM)	-$1.732	$11.532	$7.497
Gross Loss ($MM)	-$125.503	-$38.236	-$57.575
Gross Margin (%)	NM	-332%	-768%
Loss from Operations ($MM)	-$226.167	-$127.836	-$145.363
Net Loss – Continuing Ops ($MM)	-$425.764	-$153.596	-$147.722
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	-$188.563	-$102.031	-$104.030
EPS – Continuing, Basic & Diluted ($)	-$0.50	-$0.14	-$0.11
Weighted Avg Shares (MM)	857.214	1,078.091	1,335.877

Revenue Breakdown (USD)

Metric	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024
Truck Sales ($MM)	-$2.368	$10.368	$7.418
Service & Other ($MM)	$0.636	$1.164	$0.079
Total Revenues ($MM)	-$1.732	$11.532	$7.497

Operating KPIs and Cash

KPI	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024
Trucks Produced (units)	N/A	42	43
Trucks Shipped (units)	3	35	40
ASP – FCEV ($/unit)	N/A	$351,000	$381,000
HVIP FCEV Voucher Share	~96% requested (2023)	355/360 = 99% (thru Jan’24)	362/367 = 99% (unredeemed, thru Mar’24)
HYLA Sites In-Service (CA)	Ontario (opened)	Ontario + Oakland partner	Ontario + Long Beach, AB Canada; target 9 by mid‑year, 14 by YE
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)	$362.850 (9/30)	$464.715 (12/31)	$345.637 (3/31)
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($MM)	-$111.949	-$129.861	-$132.061

Note on revenue discrepancy: management cited ~$15M FCEV revenue above high-end guidance, but GAAP total revenue was $7.50M due to BEV returns/reserves affecting the reported top line .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
FCEV Wholesale Deliveries	FY 2024	300–350 trucks	300–350 trucks	Maintained
FCEV Wholesale Deliveries	Q2 2024	N/A	50–60 trucks	New
BEV Deliveries/Sale of On‑Hand Inventory	FY 2024 vs 2025	“At least 100” in 2024	Opportunistic sale in 2025 (battery supply constrained)	Lowered/Pushed out
Total Truck Revenue	FY 2024	$150–$170M	Withdrawn (management silent)	Withdrawn
Hydrogen & Other Revenue	FY 2024	$10–$12M	Not reiterated (silent)	Uncertain
Gross Margin (Total)	FY 2024	-100% to -80%	Silent due to moving parts	Withdrawn
Operating Expenses	FY 2024	$280–$300M (incl. $30M SBC)	Not reiterated (silent)	Uncertain
CapEx	FY 2024	$60–$70M	$60–$70M (unchanged)	Maintained
Hydrogen Fueling Solutions	2024 milestones	Nine by YE in CA	Nine by mid‑2024; 14 by YE	Raised
Q1 FCEV Deliveries (Actual vs Guide)	Q1 2024	30–35 units guided	40 units actual	Beat

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2023, Q4 2023)	Current Period (Q1 2024)	Trend
Hydrogen infrastructure build-out (HYLA)	Ontario modular opened; Oakland partner fueler; LOS to 6 South + 3 North CA sites	Ontario + Long Beach live; AB Canada station; target raised to 9 by mid‑year & 14 by YE	Improving
National accounts focus & pricing	Early customers, selective on orders; ASP push higher	Greater focus on fleets >1,000 trucks; “forgiving” initial deal to seed volume; ASP up QoQ	Strategic shift to scale
Supply chain & warranty	Launch challenges; BEV recall costs; supplier ramp	Battery supply constraints; outsized warranty accruals until more miles/units	Challenged near-term
Voucher/Policy tailwinds	~96–99% FCEV HVIP voucher share; incentives in CA/Canada	362/367 unredeemed (~99%) through Mar’24; CARB credit monetization begins in Q2	Strong/Stable
BEV remediation & sales	BEV 2.0 features; first trucks back by end Q1’24	First remediated BEV delivered; on-hand BEV sales shifted to 2025	Mixed (execution vs timing)
Geographic expansion	Primarily CA; Canada demos	Entering NY tri-state via independent hydrogen providers; decoupling truck sales from HYLA supply	Expanding
Capital & governance	Raised cash; liquidity improved	Reverse split rationale to preserve listing/access capital; estimate guidance pulled back	Defensive near-term

Management Commentary

“We are in the execution phase, not the planning or concepting phase…we exceeded the high end of the guidance range” — CEO Steve Girsky .
“Profitability will not be where we want it to be until we can build scale…volume is foundational” — CFO Tom Okray .
“We completed the first delivery of the remediated BEV in Q1…expect to complete remediation by year end 2024…sell on-hand inventory for revenue in 2025” — Management .
“We maintained our dominant market share of HVIP vouchers…362 of 367 (~99%)” — Management .
“We are expecting to provide 9 hydrogen fueling solutions by mid-year 2024 and 14 by year end 2024” — Management .

Q&A Highlights

Pricing and national accounts: Management will be “forgiving” on initial deals to land fleets >1,000 trucks; not price cuts per se, but flexibility to seed volume; ASP rose to $381K in Q1, up ~9% QoQ .
Warranty and one-time items: Warranty accrual “way too high” now, expected to normalize with more miles/orders; inventory write-downs and BEV returns muddy near-term P&L, reserved for potential additional returns .
Hydrogen station cost: Mobile refueler CapEx “about 2 to 3” ($MM); CapEx guidance unchanged at $60–$70M with financing/partner offsets .
Infrastructure utilization disclosure: HYLA is testing/validating fuelers; detailed utilization disclosure withheld for competitive reasons .
Geographic expansion: Decoupled truck sales from HYLA hydrogen supply in NY tri-state with independent providers; modular fuelers enable flexible deployment .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q1 2024 revenue and EPS could not be retrieved due to a missing Capital IQ mapping for NKLA; therefore, a beat/miss vs SPGI consensus cannot be assessed here. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance withdrawal and BEV sale deferral likely increase estimate uncertainty for FY24 revenue/margins; however, maintained FCEV delivery guidance (300–350) and Q2 unit guide (50–60) provide near-term unit visibility .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution on FCEV deliveries is improving (40 in Q1; ASP up), but unit economics remain negative; scaling volumes and supplier BOM reductions are critical to margin inflection (watch national-account wins and Q2 delivery cadence) .
HYLA network is densifying faster than previously planned (nine by mid‑year; 14 by YE), a key enabler for large fleet conversions and for moving beyond CA/Canada to NY tri-state; infrastructure momentum is a medium-term positive .
Policy tailwinds are tangible: ~99% HVIP voucher share and initial CARB credit monetization (Q2 recognition) support the demand narrative and add ancillary revenue potential (credit sales) .
BEV 2.0 remediation is progressing, but revenue timing pushed to 2025; this reduces 2024 top-line mix and raises reliance on FCEV shipments and HYLA to drive the story .
Guidance conservatism (withdrawn FY revenue/margin) and governance steps (reverse split) aim to stabilize listing status and capital access; near-term sentiment likely hinges on order book growth, Q2 units, and warranty normalization .
Actionable: Track order book disclosures and voucher conversions into binding orders, Q2 unit/ASP trajectory, HYLA site activations/utilization, and early evidence of warranty cost moderation; any national-account announcements are likely stock catalysts .

Sources: Q1 2024 earnings call transcript ; Q1 2024 press release/8-K ; HYLA Long Beach station press release ; Chairman reverse split press release ; Q1 production/wholesale update ; Q4 2023 results/8-K and call ; Q3 2023 results/8-K and call .

Nikola Corp (NKLA)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary